IMHO I don't think there is an MVP race this year in the AL, the NL has some interesting characters in the running. A-rod has declared he is king of all the land and there will be chicken legs and wine for all, he is the AL MVP hands down, now lets look at a few numbers to illustrate my point. (All stats through 9/19)
A-rod - 134,52,142,24,.308
Maggs - 112,27,132,4,.353
Ortiz - 107,31,107,3,.319
Ichiro - 108,6,66,37,.354
These are the top 4 offensive producers this season. All strong performances but clearly A-rod is head and shoulders above all in every category minus avg (and SB to itch). Now and MVP should not be considered just based on offensive performance but also defense ability as well as clutch hitting performance.
Lets look at WPA, or Win Probability Added.
Taken from Hardballtimes:
"The concept is simple. Let's say our batter in the bottom of the ninth hits a single to put runners on first and third with no outs. This increases the Win Probability from 71% to 87%, for a gain of 16%. So, in a WPA system you credit the batter +.16 and debit the pitcher/fielder -.16. If you add up every positive and negative event from the beginning to the end of a game, you wind up with a total for the winning team of .5, and a total for the losing team of -.5. And the player with the most points will have contributed the most to his team's win. "
A-rod - 134,52,142,24,.308
Maggs - 112,27,132,4,.353
Ortiz - 107,31,107,3,.319
Ichiro - 108,6,66,37,.354
These are the top 4 offensive producers this season. All strong performances but clearly A-rod is head and shoulders above all in every category minus avg (and SB to itch). Now and MVP should not be considered just based on offensive performance but also defense ability as well as clutch hitting performance.
Lets look at WPA, or Win Probability Added.
Taken from Hardballtimes:
"The concept is simple. Let's say our batter in the bottom of the ninth hits a single to put runners on first and third with no outs. This increases the Win Probability from 71% to 87%, for a gain of 16%. So, in a WPA system you credit the batter +.16 and debit the pitcher/fielder -.16. If you add up every positive and negative event from the beginning to the end of a game, you wind up with a total for the winning team of .5, and a total for the losing team of -.5. And the player with the most points will have contributed the most to his team's win. "
A-rod = 6.49
Maggs = 5.99
Ortiz = 3.97
Ichiro = 2.06
So having anyone of these guys on your team will help you win, but with A-rod there is a 6.49% better chance of winning with him in your lineup. That means he will directly affect the positive outcome of 10.5 games this year, easily enough to make or break a wild-card team. I will post what I think for the NL MVP tomorrow, but for now its A-rod hands down in the AL.
No comments:
Post a Comment